Politics, Economics and other Stuff

NewsBlur

I've started using NewsBlur as potential replacement for the doomed Google Reader and so far it's working.  It does cost $24 per year, but I'm happy to pay that.  Functionality is good, as is speed.  Their capacity did get quite stressed from the big influx of Google Reader refugees, but that seems to be normalizing now. 

They have a nice public sharing feature, but I can't point to that from here yet, since I need to anonymize my user name first. 

Update #1: here we are, my Newsblur sharing. 

The Belgo-Arab War

I'd not known about the Belgo-Arab War:

The Congo Arab war (also known as the Belgo-Arab War) took place in what is now the Democratic Republic of the Congo between the forces of Belgian King Leopold II's Congo Free State and various Zanzibari "Arab" slave traders led by Sefu, the son of Tippu Tip. Fighting occurred in the eastern Congo between 1892 and 1894. It was a proxy war, with most of the fighting being done by native Congolese, who aligned themselves with either side and sometimes switched sides.^[1] The causes of the war were mainly economic, since Leopold and the Arabs were contending to gain control of the wealth of the Congo.^[2] The war ended in January 1894 with a victory of Leopold's forces. Initially King Leopold collaborated with the Arabs but competition over the control of ivory turned his stance to confrontational.^[3] The war against the Swahili-Arab economic and political power was presented as a Christian anti-slavery crusade.^[3] The Congo Free State's regime, however, was much worse than the Arab slavery.^[3]

A bit hard to figure out the number of belligerents, about 3,000 official Belgian forces (European officers, African regulars), 50,000 Belgian African irregulars, 500 Zanzibari Arabs and up to 100,000 Arab proxies.  Largest Arab force named at any location is 16,000. 

See also Hinde, Sidney Langford (1897), The Fall of the Congo Arabs.

A bit more than 110 years ago, backdrop to today's war there?

Yes, I have Adam Hochschild's King Leopold's Ghost, but I find it too depressing to read. Credible estimates for Belgian regime inflicted deaths seems to be in the 2-15 million range.  Again, background for today's Congo and for Europe 1939-45 (i.e. we go out and treat East Europeans the way we treat Africans...it's all in the range of the same people's life experience). On the other hand, it is hard for me to understand how the Belgians have the capacity to kill that many people, except by working mostly through high disrupted local society.  

Slave Destinations and Survival/Reproduction?

Not sure how you get from these figures for slave trade destinations to today's populations.  Where do subsequent differences come from (i.e. when do they occur, and how do they distribute by mean and heterogeneity of mortality/fertility --- how much is today's population of the Americas driven by a tail of high fertility anestry)?

The obvious point here is that Jamaica receives a lot more slaves than today's US.  Or look at St. Helena (now around 2,000 black residents, received 51,000 slaves, though there could be more re-export here than elsewhere) or Surinam/Dutch Guianas, which received almost 300,000 slaves, but has about 50,000-80,000 blacks now, and maybe the same number of blacks moving to the Netherlands, as well as 150,000 black and other race Creoles (link, also here). 

(Link)

 

The Prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease is High

I should dig out the associated mortality.  From JAMA 2007.  I'm trying to figure out what the risk factors for CKD are and how much of this prevalence they account for (i.e. how much is 'excess' prevalence). 

The Astounding Prevalence of Hypertension in Germany

Higher than the rate for US blacks. 

I'm a bit on a cardiology reading binge.  Also moving into nephrology...

Source.

My wife doesn't know who Bentham was

Doesn't coining the neologism 'international' in 1780 get you anything?

I'm actually quite shocked. Sort of a 'two cultures' moment.

Fun with Abnormal ECGs

I had an ECG yesterday as part of my annual physical.  Looks like I manage to have

1) Bradycardia

2) First degree AV block (PR interval over 200ms, in my case 226ms)

3) Early repolarization on the v4-v6 leads (lateral early repolarization) -- this is the good sort of early repolarization. 

4) QTc is a bit long, but not abnormal. (Actually, long QTc seems quite common, unclear to me what is considered LQTS, I think LQTS is manifested in ways besides long QTc.)

5) QRS dur is a bit long, but not really (i.e. I've seen reference values up to 100ms and up to 120ms, indeed the mean population value seems to be pretty close to 100ms). 

All this, though an 'abnormal' EGC, especially the long LP duration, appears to be very normal and has no adverse consequences for a distance runner, all due to 'strong vegal tone'.  See, for instance, Recommendations for interpretation of 12-lead electrocardiogram in the athlete, European Heart Journal, 2010:

And I've not run for now about 4 weeks due to a ITBS issue, so this is my ECG after quite a bit of deconditioning.  Hope I can resolve the ITBS soon, I am doing exercises.  

I'm omitting links for now, since I don't have time to put them in.    More later, don't have time to put up a serious post now.  This is mostly a marker for later posting. 

It would be interesting to know what my paternal grandfather's arrhythmia, the one that most likely killed him at age 65, actually was in detail.  Supposedly his brother had it too, but he got a pacemaker and live to a much older age (my grandfather, or his wife, appears to have turn down the pacemaker). 

 

Who doesn't need 24TB of disk space?

Got a additonal 4TB internal disk this week.  Up over 24TB of disk space now.  Some internal, some external.  Paid a bit under $40 per TB. 

Does this kill immigration reform?

If I was into conspiracy theories, I'd say the Russians set this up.
Stupid kids.

Attorney General Ramsey Clark is Supreme Court Justice Tom Clark's Son

I'd completely missed this (obvious) fact, but it's in the title of the just released book by Alexander Wohl: Father, Son, and Constitution: How Justice Tom Clark and Attorney General Ramsey Clark Shaped American Democracy.  Not sure if this explains anything about Ramsey Clark, but it is context. 

From wiki:

In 1967, President Johnson nominated him to be Attorney General of the United States. He was confirmed by the Senate and took the oath of office on March 2. There is speculation by Clark's detractors that Johnson made the appointment on the expectation that Clark's father, Associate Justice Tom C. Clark, would resign from the Supreme Court to avoid a conflict of interest.^[5] Johnson wanted a vacancy to be created on the Court so he could appoint Thurgood Marshall, the first African American justice. The elder Clark resigned from the Supreme Court on June 12, 1967, creating the vacancy Johnson apparently desired.

Also:

Tom Clark was United States Attorney General from 1945 to 1949 and an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States from 1949 to 1967.  ...Clark, a Democrat, joined the Justice Department in 1937 as a special assistant to the U.S. attorney general for war risk litigation.^[5] He served as civilian coordinator for the forced relocation of Japanese-Americans during the opening months of World War II. He headed the antitrust division at Justice in 1943, and the criminal division from 1943 to 1945.^[5]

Appointed Attorney General by President Harry Truman in 1945,^[6] Clark was nominated to the Court on August 2, 1949, filling the vacancy left by the death of Frank Murphy. The New York Times called Clark "a personal and political friend [of Truman's] with no judicial experience and few demonstrated qualifications."^[7] Nevertheless, Clark was confirmed by the United States Senate on August 18, 1949 by voice vote, receiving his commission the following day.^[5]

Truman later came to regret his choice; he remarked to a biographer many years later that "Tom Clark was my biggest mistake."^[8][9] The change in Truman's attitude stemmed from Clark's vote to strike down as unconstitutional Truman's seizure of the nation's steel mills to end a strike in 1952's Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer.Justice Murphy, Clark's predecessor, had made a 5-to-4 majority on the Supreme Court for those justices who viewed the Court as a possible instrument of social change.^[10] But Clark, along with Truman's other conservative appointees, would change that.^[10]

"Europa ist eine Notverordnungs-Demokratie"

The SZ today:

Im Bereich des Großen, Ganzen und Grundlegenden entwickelt sich ein hochgefährliches Prinzip: Je mehr Geld im Spiel ist, umso weniger gelten rechtliche Regeln. Die ganze Euro-Rettung basiert auf Entrechtlichung. Im Verhältnis der Mitglieder der Währungsunion zueinander und zum Finanzmarkt sind Verträge und Gesetze immer weniger verbindlich. Gestern formuliert, sind sie heute angeblich für effektive Rettungsmaßnahmen schon zu schwerfällig. Regeln, die aus der Not geboren wurden, sind angeblich für die nächste Not und die nächste Euro-Rettungsaktion schon nicht mehr geeignet, müssen angeblich der Not gehorchend gebrochen, oder, wie man beschwichtigend formuliert, großzügig ausgelegt werden.

Am Beispiel des ESM, des Europäischen Stabilitätsmechanismus, wird das erschreckend deutlich. Dieser Mechanismus ist nicht irgendetwas Finanztechnisches, sondern ein Vertrag, der vom Bundestag als Gesetz beschlossen wurde, Gesetzeskraft hat und vom Bundesverfassungsgericht am 12. September 2012 in einem "Ja, aber"-Urteil gebilligt wurde. Am Donnerstag steht nun im Bundestag die Zypern-Hilfe, ein neues ESM-Rettungspaket, zur Abstimmung. Bei dieser Zypern-Hilfe zeigt sich, dass die EU- Rettungsmechaniker sich weder um die vom Verfassungsgericht formulierten Einschränkungen noch um das Vertragswerk selbst viel scheren....

Es gibt einen "Vertrag über die Arbeitsweise der Europäischen Union". Er ist kompliziert, aber geltendes Recht. In der Staaten- und EU-Praxis ist es freilich so, dass nicht die Arbeitsweise dem Vertrag, sondern der Vertrag der Arbeitsweise angepasst wird. Aus Europa wird so eine Art Notverordnungs-Demokratie: Jede Rettungsaktion schafft sich ihr Recht.

To the extent I talk to German political lawyers, they've been quite upset with the effect of Europe on the German legal system for quite some time, since at least the early 1990s, seeing a decent into patch work ad hoc American lawlessness (and you can understand what they mean, it's not like they're making this up).  The reaction to this has been to push back and make the European legal system, including fiscal legal standards, 'more German'.  But that's backfiring, since modern Germany is too intergrated to serve as a good model for Europe. 

A Walk in the Spring Woods

I seem to have picked up a running injury (surprise!), though a new one for me.  It may be 'runner's knee' or just a quad muscle tear or tendon problem.  Directly above my right knee, but at times it moves higher up as well.  Picked it up last week, associated with a 18+ mile run on Tu and then again on Th (should have waited till F or Sat?).  I didn't run this week at all, except for a 2 mile attempt yesterday.  That was fine and the injury wasn't really noticable before or during the run, but it got quite noticable after the run, including today. 

So I'm walking, not running.  Agh...

Land of the Free

(NYT)

Love is in the Air

The snakes got away before a I got a good shot...here I misjudged the autofocus setting.  A car went by and the vibrations sent the top snake scurring off in the grass. If this isn't spring snake sex, let me know. 

Looks like a northern brown snake (also here):

This is a snake that is still fairly abundant. The reason for this can be mostly attributed to its smaller size and broad habitat preferences. Brown snakes are typically found hiding among loose stones or flat rocks that are found in the wild and in large cities (Ditmars 1936). These snakes will spend most of their life under the ground, but during heavy rains they will sometimes go out into the open (Harding 1997). This usually occurs in October - November and during late March - April when they are moving to or from hibernation spots (Harding 1997).

So this may just be two young snakes moving about. It is the first real hot spell of the year (into the 80+ F).

How much North Korean Human Intelligence is there in the US?

I was giggling on the way home today at the thought of North Korean spies in Norther Virginia.  Def. possible and even likely. 

Bureau of Engraving and Printing

Btw, this photo from a few posts down features the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, the big building across Tidal Basin.  This building is from 1914, but the larger point I'm trying to make is that the Bureau of Engraving and Printing has only been around since 1874, with the US printing paper money only since 1861 ('Greenbacks').  (source)

Today's Funky PLOS Paper

Not necessarily where you want to publish for tenure. 

Matthijs J. H. M. van der Loos et. lots and lots of al., The Molecular Genetic Architecture of Self-Employment

Economic variables such as income, education, and occupation are known to affect mortality and morbidity, such as cardiovascular disease, and have also been shown to be partly heritable. However, very little is known about which genes influence economic variables, although these genes may have both a direct and an indirect effect on health. We report results from the first large-scale collaboration that studies the molecular genetic architecture of an economic variable–entrepreneurship–that was operationalized using self-employment, a widely-available proxy. Our results suggest that common SNPs when considered jointly explain about half of the narrow-sense heritability of self-employment estimated in twin data (σg2/σP2 = 25%, h2 = 55%). However, a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies across sixteen studies comprising 50,627 participants did not identify genome-wide significant SNPs. 58 SNPs with p<10−5 were tested in a replication sample (n = 3,271), but none replicated. Furthermore, a gene-based test shows that none of the genes that were previously suggested in the literature to influence entrepreneurship reveal significant associations. Finally, SNP-based genetic scores that use results from the meta-analysis capture less than 0.2% of the variance in self-employment in an independent sample (p≥0.039). Our results are consistent with a highly polygenic molecular genetic architecture of self-employment, with many genetic variants of small effect. Although self-employment is a multi-faceted, heavily environmentally influenced, and biologically distal trait, our results are similar to those for other genetically complex and biologically more proximate outcomes, such as height, intelligence, personality, and several diseases.

Hey, they got out-of-sample significance...couldn't that just be racial/ethnic stratification?  There are significant racial patterns in US self-employment, with minorities showing more (low paid, high work load) self-employment.  I assume there are also strong ethnic patterns. This paper looks at Europeans. 

Cherry Blossums

Not quite out yet.  Also in the dark. Didn't bring a tripod and had to keep up with my family. 

Backyard Turkeys

My sister-in-law sent me a photo of turkeys at the summer place. She counted 15.

My mother-in-law gets me chocolate

Made in Russia.

Canon of Contract Interpretation vs Reality

Contra proferentem:

Contra proferentem is a doctrine of contractual interpretation which provides that an ambiguous term will be construed against the party that imposed its inclusion in the contract – or, more accurately, against the interests of the party who imposed it.^[1] The interpretation will therefore favour the party that did not insist on its inclusion. The rule applies only if, and to the extent that, the clause was included at the unilateral insistence of one party without having been subject to negotiation by the counter-party. Additionally, the rule applies only if a court determines the term to be ambiguous, which often forms the substance of a contractual dispute, and such ambiguity is "latent" (i.e., not so glaring, or "patent", as to put the other party on clear notice of a problem with the wording or interpretation).

I know, probably not a latent ambiguity here...still, I always think of the other interpretive possibility when I see these signs.  And what is a latent ambiguity?   i.e. how much sophistication can one expect? [Ambiguity here is who the 'owner' is: car owner or lot owner, since the sign mentions neither.]

Can I now start paying my Euro bills with Cyprus Euros?

Probably not, but some financial firms might want to give it a try?

(link)

Spring Vacation is here

Kid #2 is spending her Spring vacation screaming at the people she encounters.  She also wonders why she's not haveing a good time.  Followed by more screaming.  No property damage yet, but she's trying. 

Wife has decided to go running.

Update #1 (March 25, 6:17 pm): no fighting at all today I'm told. The removal of parent from the scene often helps. 

Update #2: first breakdown of the day, due to both a parent (that's me) and a food prohibition before dinner.