My plan is to cut back my training pace according to the pacing suggested by Daniels. For my 5K race time has puts me in the Vdot = 45 group. The progression acccording to Daniels should be no faster than the following table, with six weeks of training until you move up by one unit of Vdot. You can raise pace faster than this if justified by race times, but I don't plan to do that.
This looks very doable. The easy (E) training pace in the beginngin of 2012 is where my current easy training pace is. The threshold (T) training pace of 7:25 is also very doable for me if I only need to hold it for at most three miles, as suggested by Daniels. The interval pace, held for 3 or 5 min at most, are more callenging but also look doable. Unless I get injured there should be no serious challenges here until 2012. And even all the 2012 wouldn't be a challenge if I'd still be in my teens, when I was able to hold paces quite a bit above this in high school (Vdot > 60).
So the plan is, again, to use my middle aged disiplinary powers to go slow. I'm on the two year plan: by the summer of 2013 I might be reasonably fast. Trying to get there any sooner is just going to fail due to injury.
BTW, the race times are for a race you've trained for, not for any randomly picked race.
I'd be stunned if, assuming no serious injury, I don't get to a Vdot of 50, i.e. a 5K time of 20 min and a marathon time (not sure if I'll try one before summer of 2012, if then) of 3:10. Vdot of 55 should be possible, with a 5K time of 18:22 and a marathon time of 2:56 (i.e. under 3 h). Vdot of 60 is imaginable, but I am 44 now and getting older...I'll know more by the end of the year. For now the plan is to clear up my foot issues by going slow.
Below the training plan that goes with the training paces listed above. I'll (re-)start with the red plan and then hopefully move to the blue plan. The red plan goes on for three months, to mid-August, the blue plan into the Fall, to November. I may take a week off here or there as well. Injury prevention...Time demands go up with the blue plan as well, not sure how that will play out. I can do 1 hour a day, above that it might get more difficult to sustain just in terms of getting up early enough to run before work.
My running for the last few months has essentially been 30 min E pace followed by 6 strides in 10 min, trying for five times a week but usually failing to get beyond four times a week due to foot problems. But the easy pace was closer to a 8 min/mile. I got hurt running T pace for 3x 1 mile at 7 min/mile.
Note that in two months, in late July, I do get to start running 5x 3 min of I pace, which should be 4:12 min/km or 6:42 min/mile. So I'll have some more serious speed to aim for once a week.
Finally, my 9:12 pace this morning felt like not running at all, a calm walk around the block. Sign me up for more of that. On the other hand, I can feel my foot this evening...I hope that goes away soon at this slow pace or I'll need to take days off.
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